Key Points
- Grayscale’s GBTC experienced total cumulative outflows of $14.15 million, leading the outflows of U.S spot Bitcoin ETFs.
- Coinbase analyst David Duong views the GBTC outflows as “net neutral”, possibly linked to Gemini liquidations.
Grayscale’s GBTC led the outflows of the new U.S spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $2.1 billion last week.
As the first quarter of 2024 draws to a close, a renewed bullish interest has been observed over the past 48 hours. Despite this, GBTC outflows continued into the new week, reaching $350.1 million.
Analyst’s Perspective
David Duong, a Coinbase analyst, has speculated on the impact of GBTC’s outflows on Bitcoin’s price. He suggested the possibility of Gemini, which is facing bankruptcy, repaying its customers using BTC from its GBTC stake.
Duong stated that if this is the case, the ongoing GBTC outflows could be linked to Gemini liquidations. As a result, he views the current GBTC outflows as “net neutral”.
Arkham Intelligence data shows that consistent GBTC outflows have reduced Grayscale’s holding from 624.28K BTC to 357.05K BTC, a 42.8% decrease since the fund was converted to an ETF in January.
Other Theories
Erick Balchunas, Bloomberg’s Senior ETF analyst, has also proposed various theories for GBTC outflows. He suggested that the U.S ETF market’s competitiveness might have been underestimated.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading above $70K, indicating a possible breakout from last week’s range. Duong commented on the current price action, stating that we are in a new price discovery territory.
Duong’s “net neutral” thesis of GBTC selling can only be confirmed if Gemini customers are repaid in BTC. Until then, GBTC outflows could continue as the halving approaches.
