Key Points
- Bitcoin’s recovery continues, nearing its mid-March record high, as the halving event approaches.
- BitMEX founder, Arthur Hayes, and analysts Peter Brandt and Benjamin Cowen offer different price predictions for Bitcoin during the halving.
Bitcoin Nears Record High
Bitcoin [BTC] is on a recovery streak, inching closer to its mid-March record high of $73.7K. This rise has led to an increase in liquidations of short positions.
The Bitcoin halving event is less than two weeks away, and market predictions vary. Some foresee a correction, while others anticipate a possible dump around the event.
Market Predictions for Halving
Arthur Hayes, founder of the BitMEX exchange, views April as an excellent month for short trade positions due to the upcoming liquidity crunch. He believes that Bitcoin and crypto prices will slump around the halving, given the entrenched narrative of the halving being positive for crypto prices.
Hayes also suggests that the halving, occurring at a time when dollar liquidity is tighter than usual, could fuel a firesale of crypto assets.
However, Peter Brandt and Benjamin Cowen offer a slightly different forecast. They suggest that BTC could follow a similar trend to the spot BTC ETF launch, which would result in a price pump followed by a dump.
Brandt predicts the dump could happen in the second half of April, easing in early May. This aligns with Hayes’ suggestion that early May could be the best time to resume trading.
Open Interest data from Coinglass shows that OI has fluctuated between $31 billion and $36 billion since mid-March. The sideways movement in OI corresponds with the BTC price consolidation around the previous cycle’s all-time high. A sharp drop in the metric could confirm Hayes’ bias on a dip in liquidity.
As we approach the halving event, caution is advised.
