Key Points
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF records zero daily inflows for two consecutive days, with total outflows reaching $338.2 million.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicts Bitcoin price could reach $250K by the 2028 halving cycle.
For the first time since mid-January, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has seen no daily inflows for two days in a row.
During the same time, the cumulative flows were negative, with total outflows reaching $338.2 million. This shift has sparked concern among market observers, as attention turns to next week’s Hong Kong ETF launch and potential interest from other institutions like Morgan Stanley.
Analyst’s Perspective
A pseudonymous market analyst, Kamikaze Fiat, has downplayed these prospects, stating that a significant amount of ETF inflows were required to take Bitcoin from $44K to $73K. He questioned whether new Bitcoin buyers could be found in sufficient numbers and whether the Hong Kong ETFs would see substantial inflows in the first month.
US Bitcoin ETF flows have seen a significant drop in Q2. The highest inflows were recorded in February of Q1, worth $6 billion, followed by March with $4.6 billion. In contrast, April inflows in Q2 stood at $170 million as of 24th April.
Future of Bitcoin ETFs
Despite the recent downturn, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes that more inflows are possible in the coming months. He asserts that ETFs are still not widely available at national wirehouses like Morgan Stanley or Merrill Lynch, and institutions are only beginning their due diligence. Both of these factors could represent significant long-term sources of demand.
Hougan also predicts that central banks could start buying Bitcoin before the next halving in 2028. He believes that Bitcoin, like gold, is non-debt money—an asset whose supply cannot be expanded through borrowing. It also cannot be seized by a foreign government the way sovereign bonds can be.
In a scenario of mainstream adoption, Hougan estimates that Bitcoin could trade above $250K by the next halving event in 2028.
Short-Term Predictions
In the short term, BitMEX founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes suggests that a potential $1.4 trillion liquidity injection by the US Treasury could trigger bullish momentum next week. He points to three possible scenarios during the next Q2 2024 Refunding announcement by the US Treasury, stating that any of them could lead to a rally in stocks and a re-acceleration of the crypto bull market.
Quarterly refunding announcements are part of the US Treasury’s debt management policy changes, and the markets typically react widely to them. It remains to be seen how the next announcement will impact Bitcoin as we head into the summer.
