Key Points
- Bitcoin [BTC] is set to end the month with a negative price return for the first time since the year began.
- According to metrics, Bitcoin’s price could potentially drop to $53,000 or rise to $92,237.
Bitcoin [BTC] is on track to close the month with a decline in price, a first since the start of the year. Data from CoinMarketCap reveals that Bitcoin’s price was $63,431 at the time of writing, marking a 9.71% decrease in the last 30 days.
As we move into May, there’s speculation around whether the coin will recover from this slump. Analysts’ views are divided, with some predicting a recovery and others forecasting a bleak picture for BTC.
Key Metrics
Relying on speculation and personal opinions isn’t productive. Hence, AMBCrypto analyzed some key metrics that could influence the coin’s price in the coming month.
The Reserve Risk metric, provided by Glassnode, measures the confidence of long-term investors relative to the price. At present, the Reserve Risk is 0.002, indicating that holders have confidence in BTC’s price. The recent price decrease could potentially signal the start of accumulation before the next price increase.
If accumulation increases, BTC might head towards $70,000, putting bears at a disadvantage. The Short Term Holder (STH) Realized Price is another metric to consider. The Realized Price is the average cost of purchasing BTC on-chain. If Bitcoin’s spot price falls below the STH Realized price, it could indicate that the coin has hit a local top. If BTC’s price remains above it, a further uptrend could be possible.
Predicting Price Movement
As of now, the STH Realized Price is $59,586. If Bitcoin drops below this level, the spot price could potentially fall to $53,000. However, the MVRV Pricing Bands, which estimate possible cycle tops and bottoms, indicate that a Realized Price of $69,178 could push the value to $92,237.
In the short term, bulls need to support BTC as selling pressure has been high recently. If accumulation increases, a drop below $59,586 might be avoided. Instead, the coin’s value might climb past $69,000, potentially validating a rise past $73,000 before the end of May.
