Key Points
- Bitcoin is facing a key resistance at the $63.9k level, with the potential for a bull market transition.
- Market metrics suggest further price expansion for Bitcoin in the coming months.
Bitcoin, currently experiencing resistance at the $63.9k level, is showing signs of a potential transition into a bull market.
Profit-taking activity, a common occurrence during price appreciation, doesn’t necessarily indicate the end of a cycle.
Bitcoin’s Downward Trend
Since April, Bitcoin has been on a downward trend on the higher timeframe price charts. However, daily timeframes demonstrate more volatility, such as the 22% price surge in July or the recent pump from $55k to $64k.
Despite these fluctuations, the transition to a bull market may be imminent, according to crypto analyst Axel Adler. He suggests that the 200-day moving average at $63.9k needs to be breached and turned into support.
Market Participants’ Predictions
Many market participants believed that the rally to $73.7k in March marked the end of the bull run. However, the chart above indicates a bullish trend from October 2023 to June 2024.
The previous cycle saw Bitcoin gain 157% in 10 weeks from the Covid crash to the 2020 halving in May. This suggests that a significant price rally into the halving event is not unprecedented.
Another chart from Adler showed that periods of price appreciation are often accompanied by holders taking profits. This doesn’t necessarily mean the bull run is over.
The long-term holder/short-term holder spent output profit ratio (LTH/STH SOPR) has yet to push past the 7, a trend that marked the tops of the previous two cycles.
The period before the previous bull run saw a large price appreciation in 2019, which was used to take profits. This took the SOPR from 2.6 to 1.1. Similarly, the selling pressure of the past five months saw the metric go from 4.2 to 1.5.
These metrics still support the idea of further price expansion for Bitcoin in the coming months.
