Key Points
- Bitcoin [BTC] fell to $60.3k following the release of FOMC Minutes from the September meeting.
- U.S. CPI data could potentially influence BTC’s performance, either triggering a rebound or escalating the decline.
On October 9th, Bitcoin [BTC] spearheaded a downturn in the crypto market, losing 2.45% and hitting a crucial support level.
BTC shed $1.5K, sliding from $62.5K to a low of $60.3k after the September FOMC Minutes were made public.
FOMC Minutes Impact on Crypto
Among the major cryptocurrencies, Binance [BNB] experienced the largest pullback at 2.65% at the time of writing.
XRP’s decline was minimal, while Solana [SOL] and Ethereum [ETH] fell by 2.4% and 1.8% respectively. Uniswap [UNI], however, emerged as the top daily gainer.
The market downturn was attributed to the FOMC Minutes, which lowered the anticipation of another 50 bps Fed rate cut in November.
The minutes revealed that most members backed the aggressive 50 bps Fed rate cuts in September, citing a weak US labor market. This was based on data available at that time.
However, the U.S. labor market has since shown significant improvement. As per the data released on October 4th, 250K roles were added in September, surpassing analysts’ predictions.
Market Reactions and Projections
This implies that labor market anxiety, a key factor in projecting aggressive rate cuts, is no longer a concern.
Consequently, analysts predict that the Fed will either implement a 25 bps rate cut or maintain the current rates.
At the time of writing, traders were pricing an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 20% probability of the current rates remaining unchanged.
However, this may change based on the September inflation data (CPI). BTC has demonstrated heightened sensitivity to Fed rate cut expectations and U.S. equities, a typical response of ‘risk-on’ assets.
Interestingly, U.S. equities did not follow the crypto markets’ decline after the FOMC Minutes. U.S. stocks closed in the green, while BTC experienced increased selling pressure.
According to CryptoQuant’s JA Maartun, the BTC drop could reverse if U.S. investors ease the selling pressure.
On the price charts, BTC was at a critical support near $60K. While this support halted the early October plunge, it remains to be seen if it will hold after the U.S. CPI data is released.
If the $60K support holds, a rebound toward the 200-day MA (Moving Average) of $63.5K could be possible.
However, if the support cracks post-CPI, BTC could potentially drop to the next support at $58K.
