Key Points
- Bitcoin experienced a significant drop in its value during the week leading up to the U.S. election, mirroring historical patterns.
- Post-election periods have historically marked the beginning of bull runs for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin [BTC] recently experienced a decline in its value, sliding down from near its all-time high of $73,600 to $67,459 on 3rd November. This drop raises questions about whether a bear market is returning or if this is merely a short-term correction.
Historical Patterns and Election Uncertainty
An analysis of BTC’s historical data reveals that the price drop might be a short-term correction. For example, in 2016, Bitcoin depreciated by 10% just days before the election. Similarly, in 2020, Bitcoin’s value dropped by 6.2%. This ongoing decline seems to mirror these past patterns.
Quinten Francois, Co-founder of WeRate, suggests that the heightened unpredictability before elections directly impacts investor sentiment, causing the value of Bitcoin to drop. This perspective is also supported by the Founder of CryptoSea. As of press time, Bitcoin had recovered to trade just under $69,000.
Future Outlook for Bitcoin
With the cause of the dip seemingly rooted in election uncertainty, the question arises – what comes next for Bitcoin? If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could hit a new ATH in the upcoming months. Past patterns show that post-election periods have marked the beginning of bull runs that extend well into the following year. In 2016, Bitcoin gained by approximately 60% two months after the election. A similar pattern was observed in 2020 with an approximate gain of 150% after the presidential elections.
The 1-year liquidation heatmap from Coinglass also suggests the likelihood of more highs for Bitcoin. A strong cluster of liquidity was formed around $74,000, which could attract the price, marking a new ATH for Bitcoin.
While a Bitcoin bull run seems likely regardless of the election outcome, the outlook for altcoins varies. A win for Donald Trump could create a more favorable environment for altcoins due to potentially relaxed crypto regulations. Clearer SEC guidelines on which altcoins qualify as securities could also trigger bull runs for these assets. However, the possibility of a lasting “altcoin season” remains uncertain at this time.
