Key Points
- President Trump’s crypto executive order could disrupt the traditional four-year market cycle of cryptocurrencies.
- Bitwise’s CIO predicts that Bitcoin’s price may exceed $200,000 in 2025 due to ETFs and institutional adoption.
Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, has suggested that the recent crypto executive order from President Trump could disrupt the usual four-year market cycle of cryptocurrencies. This cycle has defined the crypto market for over a decade.
The potential regulatory shift could challenge the established market pattern and alter the way investors approach digital assets. The influence of Trump on the crypto industry is a topic of growing speculation, and this move could signal the start of a new market dynamic.
Understanding the Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin has historically followed a four-year cycle, characterized by three years of strong gains and a significant correction in the fourth year. Hougan notes that this pattern has remained consistent, with 2023 and 2024 bringing impressive returns and setting expectations for a strong 2025.
However, investors are now questioning whether 2026 could bring a market reset. While some attribute the cycle to Bitcoin’s halving events, Hougan believes that broader market psychology and speculative behavior, influenced by key industry events, play a more significant role.
The Origin and Future of the Cycle
Hougan suggests that the current mainstream crypto cycle emerged from the market turmoil of 2022, marked by the collapse of firms like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and Celsius. The turning point came in March 2023, when Grayscale won an initial victory in its legal battle against the SEC, paving the way for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
The launch of these ETFs in January 2024 attracted institutional investors and drove Bitcoin’s price from approximately $22,000 to over $100,000 within a year. This marked a shift of crypto into the mainstream.
Despite the evolving crypto market, Hougan believes the traditional four-year cycle is not entirely behind us. He expects future downturns to be less severe and shorter in duration due to the industry’s growing maturity. However, he also acknowledges that the timing of these changes is the biggest challenge ahead.
