Key Points
- Ethereum’s price consolidation around $2.6k in February suggested a possible recovery, but the sellers aren’t exhausted yet.
- Despite the Bybit hack and a drop in Ethereum’s value, some analysts see a potential buying opportunity.
Ethereum’s price seemed to stabilize around $2.6k in February, offering a glimmer of hope for a recovery.
However, on-chain metrics indicate that the sellers of this altcoin are far from exhausted.
The Bybit Hack and Ethereum’s Value
The Bybit hack resulted in $1.46 billion worth of Ethereum [ETH] being drained from a cold wallet.
Despite this, the exchange was able to process an unprecedented amount of withdrawals smoothly.
At the time of writing, ETH’s value had dropped by 2.64% over the last 24 hours.
Crypto analyst RektProof identified a pattern in a post on X.
The range formation from Q1 2024 appeared to still be in play, with recent events causing a deviation below the lows.
This was also the area where accumulation took place from July-October 2024, before the swift rally in November.
Comparisons and Metrics
RektProof compared this to Bitcoin [BTC] hitting cycle lows due to black swan events like COVID or the FTX crash.
This suggested that ETH might be hitting similar lows.
However, the question remains: is this too good to be true?
Metrics indicate that Ethereum still has room to go lower.
The seller exhaustion metric, a product of the percentage supply in profit and the 30-day price volatility, has been rising.
This is due to high volatility in recent weeks and a falling percent supply in profit.
Despite these conditions, the market does not seem to reflect a low-risk price bottom.
The percentage supply in profit has been on a downward trend since the price was rejected from $4k in December.
The short-term holder (STH) net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) takes into account transactions younger than 155 days.
Values below 0 indicate that STHs are at a loss and at press time, the metric was at -0.164.
Considering the range formation and the current NUPL, this could potentially be a good buying opportunity for ETH.
However, a negative NUPL does not automatically indicate local bottoms.
The metrics need to be used contextually, and combining the price action with the metrics examined so far, there’s a possibility of ETH’s price dropping towards $2.1k.
