Key Points
- Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio remains below previous peaks, indicating a more mature market structure.
- Whale accumulation rises as net inflows surge, suggesting a decline in near-term sell pressure.
Bitcoin recently set a new all-time high above $108K. However, its MVRV ratio remains significantly below the peaks recorded in previous cycles, indicating a more mature market structure.
This divergence is due to the rising Realized Cap, suggesting that more coins are now held by strong hands with higher cost bases. This shift indicates that new capital is absorbing supply at higher prices.
Whale Accumulation and Market Behavior
In the past week, inflows surged over 11,800%, while outflows dropped more than 91%. This contrast reveals a net accumulation phase, where large holders are moving assets into holding wallets. This behavior reduces the likelihood of near-term sell pressure.
Moreover, the lack of corresponding outflows suggests that these whales are not rotating capital between exchanges but are accumulating for longer-term exposure.
Supply Contraction and Healthy Utility
Exchange reserves have declined by 2.14%, dropping to $262.3 billion. This drop signals that fewer coins remain on centralized platforms, reducing sell-side pressure. When reserves fall in tandem with rising prices, it suggests that holders are opting for self-custody instead of planning to sell.
The BTC NVT Golden Cross has dropped more than 12% to 0.43, indicating that valuation is aligning well with network activity. This combination of supply contraction and healthy utility supports a sustainable rally.
Trading Patterns and Trendlines
The BTC Binance liquidation map shows a concentration of short liquidations above $108K, signaling that bears are being squeezed as price climbs. However, Open Interest has dropped by 5.26%, suggesting that overall speculative pressure is cooling.
BTC continues to trade above a clean ascending trendline on the 4-hour chart, currently bouncing near the 1.618 Fibonacci level at $107.7K. If bulls push past $110.8K and clear resistance at $114K, further expansion toward $115.9K becomes likely.
However, a break below the trendline could trigger a short-term correction to $105K or lower. Bitcoin’s current structure reflects a healthy uptrend supported by institutional accumulation, shrinking supply, and reduced speculative pressure.
