Key Points
- The anticipated US Ethereum ETF may only capture about 20% of the Bitcoin ETF market share, predicts Bloomberg analyst.
- Analyst’s projection is based on the performance of ETH and BTC futures ETFs, and comparisons between gold and silver.
The much-anticipated US Ethereum (ETH) ETF may not enjoy the same level of success as the Bitcoin (BTC) ETF, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. He predicts that the Ethereum ETF could seize roughly ‘20%’ of the Bitcoin ETF’s market share.
Analysis and Predictions
Balchunas’ prediction is based on the analysis of the current market share in the futures market. He notes that Ethereum ETF instruments, which are already available in various jurisdictions as futures ETF offerings, command only about 20% of the market share. He suggests this could be a likely scenario for spot ETFs as well.
The analyst also compares the performance of Bitcoin to gold and Ethereum to silver. He points out that the Silver ETF currently holds just 15% of the Gold ETF market share. He argues that many investors may not feel the need to diversify beyond Bitcoin for their cryptocurrency allocation.
Market Performance and Future Projections
As of May 28th, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs had accumulated $13.7 billion in total flows. If Balchunas’ prediction holds, this could translate to roughly $2.7 billion of Ethereum ETFs over the same period.
From a Hong Kong perspective, Bitcoin flows were double that of Ethereum for the spot products, particularly for the leading ETF funds from Bosera. However, according to CoinMarketCap data, Ethereum’s spot market cap of $454 billion was 34% of Bitcoin’s $1.3 trillion.
The US spot Ethereum ETF products are expected to launch in July. Some analysts predict the Ethereum price could reach $4.5K before trading begins.
