Key Points
- Chris Burniske, ex-Ark Invest crypto executive, believes Bitcoin’s market cycle has not yet peaked.
- Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV indicates that the Bitcoin market may be exiting a local overheated phase.
Chris Burniske, former Ark Invest crypto executive and current VC partner at Placeholder, has expressed his belief that the Bitcoin market cycle is still not at its peak, despite recent stagnation in the cryptocurrency’s price. Burniske suggests that this period is just a “mid-bull pullback” and not a sign of the cycle top.
Burniske’s perspective is supported by the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV, a key valuation indicator. Axel Adler from CryptoQuant also pointed out that the STH MVRV has fallen from 1.35 to neutral levels, indicating the market may be moving away from a local overheated phase.
The Significance of $96k
The STH realized price (RP), or the average price cost of Bitcoin acquired over the last few months, is currently at $96k. This figure has historically served as either support or resistance. A sustained price drop below this level could trigger panic among the STH cohort, leading them to sell at a loss. However, if the STH RP acts as a support, it could maintain the uptrend.
Over the past few trading days, the STH RP has been in play. After Bitcoin’s sharp drop to $91k on February 3, the cryptocurrency has attempted to remain above $96k for the last four trading days.
Bitcoin network activity has also dropped to yearly lows, which Adler suggests could mean Bitcoin is overvalued. If repriced, Bitcoin could either hold at $96k or drop lower. However, this could provide new buying opportunities if the retracement extends to range lows.
