Key Points
- Bitcoin’s price has dropped by over 3% in the last 24 hours, with a declining selling pressure potentially signalling a trend reversal.
- A historical analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s price typically peaks roughly two years after halvings, indicating a potential cycle high in 2026.
Bitcoin’s price has seen a significant decrease of more than 3% in the past day. The selling pressure on Bitcoin is decreasing, which could potentially lead to a reversal in the current downward trend.
Recent Price Correction and Investor Sentiment
After a brief bullish period, Bitcoin experienced a significant price correction. This recent decrease in price may have caused concern among Bitcoin investors. However, an examination of the broader context reveals that Bitcoin is still far from reaching the peak of its current cycle.
Data from CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin’s price has fallen by 13% over the past week, with a nearly 3% drop in the last 24 hours alone. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $55,412.77, with a market capitalization of over $1.09 trillion.
According to data from IntoTheBlock, only 75% of Bitcoin investors are currently in profit, representing over 40.47 million addresses. Despite this, the overall trend may shift in the coming months.
Historical Analysis and Future Predictions
Milkybull, a notable cryptocurrency analyst, recently highlighted the relationship between Bitcoin halvings and its cycle peak. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s price typically peaks approximately two years after each halving. For example, after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin peaked in 2014.
Following the third Bitcoin halving in 2020, the price reached a cycle peak in 2022. If this pattern continues, investors could see Bitcoin reach a cycle high in 2026, following the fourth halving in 2024.
This analysis implies that investors who choose to hold onto their Bitcoin could see significant profits in the coming years. Indeed, data from IntoTheBlock suggests that over 70% of Bitcoin holders are long-term investors, holding onto the coin for more than a year.
Short-Term Outlook
With long-term prospects appearing optimistic, it’s worth examining what to expect in the short-term, especially given the recent price correction. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin’s exchange reserve is decreasing, suggesting a diminishing selling pressure.
The binary CDD is green, indicating that movements by long-term holders in the past week have been lower than average, suggesting a motivation to hold onto their coins. These metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s price chart may soon turn green.
However, derivative metrics indicate a bearish trend. For example, Bitcoin’s taker buy/sell ratio is red, suggesting a dominant selling sentiment in the market.
