Key Points
- The Bitcoin rainbow chart indicates strong bullishness for BTC over the next 12–18 months.
- Despite recent gains, Bitcoin is still considered cheap and within the accumulation zone for long-term investors.
The Bitcoin rainbow chart, a tool that investors use to gauge where Bitcoin is in its cycle, is showing intense bullishness for the cryptocurrency in the next 12–18 months. Developed in 2014, this chart uses past performance data and projects it forward on a logarithmic scale.
This method helps to smooth out some of Bitcoin’s notorious volatility and the distinct color bands provide a quick snapshot of market sentiment. However, this tool is best suited for multi-year holders, not day traders.
Bitcoin’s Future Projection
Looking at the past two halving events, it generally takes a few months for a bull run to kick off post-halving. The most recent cycle was different, with the price rapidly increasing before the halving and setting a new all-time high just a month after.
Despite these gains, Bitcoin remains within the accumulation zone, which is encouraging for long-term investors. Public sentiment is currently lukewarm, but things could heat up and become more bullish in the coming year.
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could reach its cycle top in October 2025, potentially pushing prices into the $144k-$184k range.
On-Chain Metrics Insights
On-chain metrics such as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which represents the total profit/loss in all coins as a ratio, provide further insights. Values above 0.7 generally indicate a market top. In March 2024, the NUPL reached 0.62, indicating overheated conditions and increased selling pressure. However, it has since trended downward, indicating decreased selling.
This suggests more room for prices to expand upward. The NUPL can remain above 0.5 for months at a time, as seen in the latter half of 2020, and could repeat this pattern in 2024.
In conclusion, long-term investors may choose to accumulate more Bitcoin or simply hold on to their current holdings. Continued price gains are likely, but they may take a few more months to materialize.
