Key Points
- Bitcoin’s on-chain data suggests a local bottom at $90K, but breaking $99K requires solid groundwork.
- Increased adoption and strategic investor activity are helping to counteract downward pressure.
Bitcoin’s on-chain data has indicated a “local” bottom at $90K, but breaking through the $99K mark will require solid groundwork. This comes amidst macro volatility and a slight rise in U.S. inflation, which has caused some concern in the stock markets.
Bitcoin’s Resilience Amidst Economic Uncertainty
In contrast to U.S. indexes, Bitcoin [BTC] has shown resilience, climbing over 4% to close at $95,883. This rebound comes after four consecutive days of losses following its record high of $99,317. The asset’s resilience amid increasing economic uncertainties, particularly fears of rising consumption costs due to high tariffs, is notable.
The price action, just before Thanksgiving, has sparked speculation that U.S. investors may sustain their trading appetite to push BTC back to $99K. However, this bullish hypothesis awaits confirmation from convincing on-chain data.
On-Chain Data Signals Bottom Formation
With the “Trump trade” settling, approximately one million BTC, acquired at an average price of $93,447 by 917K wallets, are banking on bullish on-chain data to validate their commitment to the $100K target. Bitcoin’s resilience amid inflationary pressures suggests a potential bottom forming near $90K, a level briefly tested as short-term holders offloaded their positions.
This could create a strong baseline for fresh FOMO, potentially incentivizing long-term commitment and setting the stage for a new rally. Three days ago, negative net flow triggered significant activity from retail investors, with over 13K BTC being accumulated at an average price of $91K.
Large players also seem to have expressed gratitude for the year’s rally this Thanksgiving, with over 20K BTC withdrawn. This contributed to the price rebounding within the $96K band. Together, retail and institutional investors have strategically targeted the recent “dip” to $90K, driving a notable uptick in adoption.
However, while a bottom may have formed, it’s important to note that this could represent a “local” bottom rather than a true “market” bottom. A reversal remains a possibility unless Bitcoin shows similar activity at price levels historically seen as “high-risk,” like the $99K level, where strong resistance still exists.
99K Resistance Requires Both Micro and Macro Support
BTC’s on-chain data shows strong support at $90K, with investor reactions likely preventing further declines and establishing a local bottom for a potential rebound. As a result, Bitcoin is back in the $96K range, restoring net profits after wiping out gains made during the final trading days of the election cycle.
In the coming days, monitoring these on-chain datasets will be crucial to determine if BTC can hold steady within the $95K to $97K range. This stability could pave the way for further upside to $99K, where significant activity is expected.
To begin with, the 256.92K addresses holding around 208K BTC acquired at an average price of $98,309 will be ‘in the money’. What they do next will play a crucial role in shaping Bitcoin’s price action. Secondly, both “anticipation” and “execution” will play critical roles. While few may expect a breakout above $100K, driven by social media hype, others will likely begin executing their exit strategies, as seen in recent market behavior.
Thus, the responsibility of establishing $99K as a new bottom will fall on both on-chain data and broader macroeconomic trends. In a recent survey, traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting. The market is now pricing in a 64.7% chance of this happening, up from 55.7% just a week ago.
This shift could provide a solid foundation for BTC to break the $100K mark. This is especially true if combined with bullish on-chain data, including whale activity, institutional inflows, and long-term holder commitment at the $99K price point.
