Key Points
- The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart suggests that the bottom is closer than the top for Bitcoin.
- Decreasing NUPL indicates a reduction in selling pressure from profit-takers.
A year ago, Bitcoin (BTC) was valued at $25.7k. The market was in a slump and the halving event was still seven months away.
In October, the sentiment changed due to rumors of a possible spot ETF approval from the SEC and the apparent peak of inflation.
These factors increased Bitcoin’s appeal to potential investors, leading to a price surge that culminated in a record high of $73.7k in March 2024. The question now is whether this October will also trigger a rally that surpasses the yearly highs.
Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Provides Investor Insights
The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is an interesting approach to analyzing Bitcoin’s long-term price trends. It employs a logarithmic scale to plot Bitcoin’s price and uses color codes to guide investors on whether to buy, sell, or HODL.
Although not entirely accurate, the chart has been surprisingly effective in predicting and timing the cycle’s top and bottom, particularly the latter. Despite recent declines into the “Bitcoin is dead” zone, the chart has not yet hit the optimal buying area.
According to the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, Bitcoin is currently in a favorable buying zone, described as “a fire sale”. If this cycle follows the pattern of the previous one, the latter part of October could see Bitcoin start a significant rally.
This rally could be the bull run that typically follows a halving event.
Holder Profitability Affected by Downtrend
As of now, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric stands at 0.47, indicating that the market cap is larger than the realized cap. This suggests that a significant number of holders may still be profiting, despite the price trend declining over the last six months.
The NUPL has also fallen with the price, implying that the desire to sell from profitable holders is likely decreasing. This could leave room for price growth in the upcoming months. A NUPL reading above 0.7 usually signifies the cycle’s peak.
