Key Points
- Bitcoin ETFs recorded $186.5 million in net outflows on November 3, indicating waning investor confidence.
- Short-term Bitcoin holders are selling more, while those holding for 3-6 months seem to be accumulating.
Bitcoin has had a rough start to November. On November 3, ETFs tracking the cryptocurrency reported net outflows of $186.5 million. The data reveals that all Bitcoin ETFs experienced no inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT being solely responsible for the withdrawals on that day.
This marks the fourth consecutive trading day of capital exit from Bitcoin ETFs. Over $1.34 billion has been pulled since late October. This trend suggests a decline in investor confidence as Bitcoin’s price fell sharply to $104,500 at the time of writing, a decrease of more than 8% over the past week.
Market Impact and Investor Behavior
This decline has led to widespread liquidations across the market. Data indicates that within 24 hours, more than 336,000 traders were liquidated, with a total of $1.36 billion worth of leveraged positions being liquidated. This has further increased the sell-off pressure for the top cryptocurrency.
On-chain data by CryptoQuant reveals that short-term Bitcoin holders have been the most active sellers since October 10. The average cost basis of Bitcoin, based on the length of time coins have remained unmoved, demonstrates that the realized prices for short-term holders range from $107,160 for those held 1–3 months. This suggests that recent buyers are selling assets as prices dip below their cost basis.
However, coins held for longer periods, particularly the 3–6 month and 6–12 month cohorts, are showing resilience. On-chain patterns indicate that the so-called “smart money,” investors in the 3–6 month holding range, has begun accumulating again.
This could signal early repositioning for a potential BTC price rebound. However, a CryptoQuant contributor explained that this accumulation process seems incomplete. This means that mid-term holders are waiting for capitulation to fully play out before entering more aggressively.
Experts also caution that a deeper drop could shake even these mid-term holders. The psychological support level currently stands around $93,561, the average cost basis for the 6–12 month group.
Technical analysts warn that Bitcoin may soon test its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) near $102,000 for the first time in seven months. They say that losing that level could trigger a deeper psychological correction.
