Key Points
- Options data shows growing bullish positioning for Bitcoin toward $80,000 by June.
- Derivatives skew and call interest indicate reduced downside hedging and renewed upside bets.
Options traders are increasingly favoring calls as Bitcoin derivatives data points to expectations of a move toward $80,000 before the end of the second quarter.
On-chain options platform Derive.xyz estimates a roughly 35% probability that BTC trades above $80,000 by late June.
On March 4, 2026, BTC broke out of a symmetrical triangle pattern that had compressed price action between $63,000 and $72,000, supported by rising volume.
By March 9, BTC was trading near $68,400, up 3.7% on the day, while the 50-day EMA around $74,400 stood as the next major resistance ahead of the $80,000 area.
Prediction platform Polymarket recorded a sharp shift in expectations, with odds of BTC reaching $80,000 by month-end climbing from 20% to 39% within one session.
Odds of a move to $75,000 also increased from 40% to 67%, reflecting rapidly changing short-term sentiment.
Options Skew and Call Interest Turn Positive
Recent derivatives data shows a notable rebound in Bitcoin’s options skew, moving from deeply negative levels in early February to around +10%.
Under neutral conditions, delta skew typically ranges between -6% and +6%, placing current readings in bullish territory.
The shift suggests traders are reducing protective put exposure and increasing upside positioning through calls.
Data from major derivatives venues indicates a call-to-put open interest ratio near 3-to-1 for March expirations, with approximately $660 million in calls versus $240 million in puts.
Out-of-the-money calls are concentrated between $110,000 and $220,000 strike prices, consistent with call-overwriting strategies by investors holding spot exposure.
A single March 27 $90,000 call contract represents 5,665 BTC in notional value, highlighting expectations among some participants for extended upside.
Technical Levels and Macro Catalyst in Focus
An unfilled CME futures gap between $79,660 and $81,210 remains a focal point, as historically most such gaps eventually close.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA near $68,700 serves as immediate support in the event of a pullback.
A sustained daily close above $80,000 would bring the 200-day EMA near $88,000 into focus, followed by the $90,000 region marked by the March 2025 peak.
Failure to break above $80,000 could reinforce a broader supply zone and increase the likelihood of revisiting the $68,700 to $70,000 support range.
The Federal Reserve’s March 18 rate decision represents a near-term event risk, with options markets pricing elevated implied volatility ahead of the announcement.
A dovish policy signal could provide momentum for an upside breakout, while a hawkish outcome may drive volatility higher and shift positioning back toward protective puts.
Institutional activity in Bitcoin derivatives reflects a cautiously bullish stance, with some hedge funds utilizing elevated volatility to implement yield-generating call-overwriting strategies rather than increasing outright long exposure.
