Key Points
- $3.04 billion in BTC Options expired with a Max Pain Price of $107K.
- Spot and ETF inflows totaled over $1B in three days, but failed to trigger a bullish reversal.
Bitcoin Options Expiry and Market Impact
Bitcoin [BTC] maintained a steady level above $100,000 this month, with a marginal gain of 1.29%. Despite this stability, the market might soon experience turbulence due to the expiration of billions in Options. Analysis suggests that a major drop is more likely, although some investors are attempting to resist the downward pressure.
Approximately $3.04 billion in BTC Options were set to expire, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.95 and a Max Pain Price of $107,000. A put-call ratio below 1 indicates that more traders are holding buy (call) positions in the market. However, Bitcoin’s price traded well below this max pain level at $104,682, creating a significant gap.
Market Reactions and Future Predictions
This gap suggests that traders who dominate a large portion of the Notional Value are likely to record major losses, while short sellers stand to profit. In response, traders typically open more short positions to hedge against losses, or choose to take profit. Analysis confirms that this trend has already begun, with Options Open Interest (OI) surging significantly.
The bearish sentiment is also reflected in the Futures market, where the number of sellers has increased. Over 24 hours, longs were hit with a $422.89 million loss, while shorts lost only $28.63 million. The Long/Short Ratio stood at 0.929—below 1, confirming sellers’ control over the market.
Despite this, spot investors remained steady, with $150.70 million worth of BTC flowing into exchanges over 24 hours and weekly accumulation crossing $651 million. Traditional investors also made significant purchases, with $86 million worth of Bitcoin purchased across several Bitcoin spot ETFs. These large-scale buy-ins may positively influence market sentiment and potentially lead to a supply squeeze.
However, a significant market reversal—specifically a $3,000 recovery in Bitcoin’s price—seems unlikely before the Options expire. If this reversal doesn’t occur, Bitcoin is likely to slide even lower.
