Key Points
- Long-term holders sold $2.4 billion as Bitcoin fell 12% from recent highs.
- On-chain metrics show growing losses, nearing historical cycle bottom levels.
Recent data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders sold about $2.4 billion worth of coins over two days.
These holders, defined as wallets retaining coins for at least 155 days, accounted for 26% of bitcoin sold in the past month, largely from buyers above $90,000.
The selling coincided with a 12% weekly decline from the October peak above $126,000.
Spot ETF net assets also dropped sharply to $82.83 billion, down from $107.8 billion.
Weaker US jobs data, including a downward revision of roughly 92,000 positions for February, contributed to broader market risk reduction.
High-beta assets experienced accelerated selling, with Bitcoin seeing heavier outflows compared to equities.
On-Chain Metrics Reflect Rising Pressure
On-chain analysis indicates long-term holders were largely inactive between February and April before turning into net sellers as prices approached recent lows.
This shift has implications for supply and demand dynamics, as this group had previously absorbed downturns without significant capitulation.
The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) has fallen below 1.0, signaling that many long-term holders are now realizing losses.
Data compiled from Glassnode suggests that approximately 39% to 43% of the total bitcoin supply is currently at a loss.
Historically, prior cycle bottoms in 2015, 2018, and 2022 occurred when 50% to 55% of supply was underwater.
Current estimates indicate around 11.1 million BTC remain in profit, while 8.9 million BTC are held at a loss.
Previous market cycles showed that this profit-loss gap typically closed near structural lows before renewed accumulation began.
Cycle Comparisons and Drawdown Context
The present drawdown from October’s high stands at approximately 52%, which is less severe than the 77% to 85% declines recorded in earlier bear markets.
However, several deep-value metrics, including MVRV Z-Score and Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss, are approaching levels historically associated with major bottoms.
One composite indicator is tracking near negative 1.5 standard deviations from its mean, around the $62,000 price area.
Analysts describe this pattern as consistent with late-stage bear market behavior, where top-cycle buyers exit positions near local lows.
