Key Points
- Bitcoin experienced both on and off-chain accumulation during its recent lows, demonstrating buyer confidence.
- The liquidation heatmap indicated a possible short-term price drop.
Bitcoin recently saw accumulation both on and off the blockchain during its lows, indicating strong conviction from buyers.
The liquidation heatmap also suggested a short-term dip in price was likely.
Bitcoin’s New Weekly Close
On March 18th, Bitcoin [BTC] set a new weekly closing record at $106,454 on Binance, surpassing the previous high of $104,463 from December. The daily close also slightly increased by 0.29% ($310) compared to the previous record.
On-chain data suggests that this rally was preceded by a strong accumulation phase that started in early May at the $94K level.
Bullish Momentum and Accumulation
The bulls gained strength as the demand for spot increased, though the 180-day Open Interest Delta suggests that whales remained cautious during the surge.
The Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) for Coinbase and Binance indicated a growing bullish momentum since mid-April.
Coinbase recorded a peak of $45 million in daily volume when BTC was near $80K. Meanwhile, Binance, which experienced heavy net selling in April, saw this selling pressure ease significantly, becoming only a mild net seller.
The overall exchange activity implies that accumulation near local lows was a significant factor in driving Bitcoin’s explosive rally toward $108K.
This accumulation was also evident on-chain. The BTC’s Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap above shows the supply acquired by addresses at specific price levels. The $85k region saw a notable amount of supply acquired. The accumulation was even more intense in the $93k-$95k area.
Therefore, this area was expected to be a strong support zone. Bitcoin was unlikely to fall lower due to the amount of buying in that area. On-chain evidence of accumulation backed up evidence of buyer strength from the spot CVD on exchanges.
At the time of writing, the Realized Price for Bitcoin short-term holders (holding for less than 155 days) stood at $94.2K. This aligns with the supply clusters visible on the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, reinforcing the strength of the $93K–$95K region as a key support zone in the event of a pullback.
The 2-week liquidation heatmap showed a cluster of liquidation levels at the $106.6k region. This liquidity was swept, and was followed by a swift reversal. The next magnetic zone of note was at $98.4k-$101k.
As the price is attracted to liquidity, Bitcoin is likely to drop further in the short-term. However, as the other pieces of evidence showed, bullish belief remained firm in the market. The highest daily and weekly closes on record also reflected bullish intent.
