Key Points
- Bitcoin has reached $110K for the third time, sparking a new price discovery phase.
- Long-term holders are beginning to sell, but the selling remains moderate compared to previous cycles.
Bitcoin has once again hit the $110K mark, marking the third time in this cycle. This has ushered in a new phase of price discovery.
Historically, price discovery phases are typically followed by substantial sell-offs as investors take advantage of the new highs to reduce risk and take profits. This pattern is starting to emerge in the current on-chain metrics.
Older Wallets Begin to Move
Checkonchain data shows a significant drop in the HODLer Net Position Change metric, which has fallen to -30.8K BTC. This suggests that long-term holders are beginning to move their coins.
According to Glassnode, the amount of Bitcoin being spent by long-term holders is at a three-month high. The Spent Volume by Age metric indicates that sales of BTC from the 1–5 year cohort have spiked to $4.02 billion, the highest outflow since February.
Comparison with Previous Cycles
While spending by long-term holders may seem high, it is still relatively low when compared to previous cycles. For example, in February 2025, Bitcoin holders who had held for 2 to 3 years sold $5.42 billion worth of BTC. In October 2024, those who held for 1 to 2 years sold $9.25 billion.
This data suggests that older wallets tend to sell more as prices rise. However, the Long-Term Holder Supply Net Position Change remains positive at around 745K BTC, indicating a net accumulation trend rather than mass exit behavior.
Despite the fact that older wallets are selling Bitcoin, they are not spending as much. This suggests that long-term holders are holding strong. Some long-term holders appear to be strategically exiting the market to take profits, which is a normal pattern as Bitcoin enters the discovery phase.
Unless the selling pressure increases dramatically, Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory remains intact. If current conditions continue, Bitcoin could potentially reach $120K in the short term before more aggressive profit-taking begins.
