Key Points
- Bitcoin has surpassed its Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis, signaling a change in market sentiment.
- A bullish continuation above $93,000 is likely, driven by whale accumulation and a shift in risk appetite.
Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed its STH cost basis, a crucial level that often determines the near-term trend direction.
A bullish continuation above $93,000 seems probable.
Bitcoin’s Q1 Decline and Recovery
The 13% Q1 decline of Bitcoin was mainly caused by an 18% drawdown in February, leading to a substantial market correction.
This triggered a phase of STH capitulation in March, resulting in a spike in realized losses and pushing Bitcoin to its lowest point at $77,000.
Despite this, whale accumulation continued, spurred by macroeconomic instability and a change in risk appetite.
This strategic capital influx sparked a bullish rally, breaking through two key supply zones and initiating a liquidation cascade of leveraged positions.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $93,700, a 14% rebound from its March close.
Notably, Bitcoin has exceeded its STH cost basis for the first time since mid-February, indicating a significant shift in market structure and sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Reversal Signal
On April 22nd, Bitcoin posted a 6.82% single-day gain, closing at $93,489, effectively reclaiming a key overhead resistance level that had been untested for over a month.
The impact of this is that Short-term holders (STHs) moved into profit territory after over a month of their realized price being below Bitcoin’s market valuation.
This resurgence signals a strong bullish continuation and serves as a critical FOMO trigger.
If Bitcoin maintains its momentum, short-term investors are likely to hold on to their investments for outsized returns, viewing the move as a reward for their resilience during the March sell-offs.
In fact, at $93,986, 11.72k Bitcoin were bought— the highest in the month.
This marks a significant shift with strong outflows into wallets, reinforcing the thesis of bullish continuation.
With increased participation from whales and the reversal of STHs into profit, Bitcoin’s market structure has decisively shifted.
The path of least resistance now suggests further bullish price discovery, with a potential for continuation into higher resistance zones.
