Key Points
- Bitcoin’s price surge has been driven by renewed buying interest and lower supply on Binance, according to on-chain data.
- Open Interest and active addresses indicate stronger market participation and potential for further gains.
Bitcoin [BTC] has experienced significant volatility since the beginning of the year. After an initial surge, a sharp correction created uncertainty about the market’s direction. However, on January 20th, Bitcoin’s price spiked to a new all-time high, surpassing $109,000, though it subsequently retreated to $107,945.
On-Chain Data Analysis
During this period, analysts have been observing key on-chain metrics. A CryptoQuant analyst noted that the Binance Netflow SMA30, a 30-day moving average of netflows on Binance, provides valuable insights into market sentiment and price trends. Changes in this metric often align with significant price movements, suggesting that the current rally might have further to go.
Historically, the Binance Netflow SMA30 has been a reliable indicator for predicting Bitcoin’s short-term price direction. When the metric shows a positive value, it usually signals increased selling pressure as more Bitcoin flows into Binance. Conversely, a negative Netflow SMA30 typically indicates a decrease in spot supply and stronger upward momentum.
Additional Market Indicators
In addition to the Binance Netflow SMA30, other indicators offer a wider view of Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. Open Interest data from Coinglass reveals a 4.61% increase in the last 24 hours, reaching a value of $71.21 billion. The volume of Open Interest has also risen by 156.60% over the same period, hitting $179.14 billion. These increases suggest growing trader engagement and potential momentum in the derivatives market, which can impact Bitcoin’s spot price.
Furthermore, Glassnode data on active addresses, a measure of retail participation, has shown recent increases in user activity. The number of active addresses rose from below 1 million earlier this month to 2.2 million by January 17th, before falling back to 1.1 million as of January 19th. Despite the fluctuation in active addresses, the overall increase earlier in the month implies that more participants are engaging with the Bitcoin network.
