Key Points
- Bitcoin’s cycle tops have declined from 15x to 2.65x the 2-Year Simple Moving Average, indicating a more stable market structure.
- Despite lower cycle multiples, Bitcoin shows signs of structural strength and potential for growth.
Bitcoin’s cycle tops have shown a steady decline from 15x to 2.65x the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (2Y SMA).
This trend, however, does not indicate weakness but rather a sign of structural strength in Bitcoin (BTC).
Shift in Price Behavior
Over the past eight years, BTC has experienced a significant shift in its price behavior. This change is due to the maturing market.
With each cycle, BTC’s peak has formed at a lower multiple of its 2Y SMA. This pattern reflects shrinking volatility and a more stable market structure.
Bitcoin’s early bull runs were explosive, with tops occurring at 15x the 2Y SMA. These rallies signaled wild speculative growth, largely driven by a thin market and early adopters.
However, from 2017, Bitcoin’s growth became more subdued as it reached the global market.
Bitcoin’s Evolution
In 2021, institutional money flooded into the market. Despite this, the cycle’s peak dropped again, first hitting 5x, then reversing around 2.65x the 2Y SMA.
This change marked a structural shift: Bitcoin was no longer just a trade—it was becoming a macro asset.
In the most recent cycle, Bitcoin has failed to surpass the 2.65x multiple again. This failure shows a narrowing of gains and indicates a more mature asset.
The 2Y SMA x2.65 level now sits around $159,000. If BTC makes a major upswing, $159k will act as the next key resistance.
Looking at Bitcoin’s MVRV, it’s currently revolving around 2.4, signaling that the market is still below euphoria territory.
Historically, Bitcoin tops have emerged around 3.5 to 4.0. Therefore, there’s still more room for growth before the cycle tops.
With significant maturity in market behavior, BTC holders are currently unlikely to pursue extreme profit taking as they expect higher prices for the current cycle.
Therefore, although future cycles can no longer experience a 15x surge, there’s still more room for growth. Bitcoin is now more stable, less volatile, and reliable as an investment.
In the prevailing market, BTC still has more room for growth. If the momentum of the cycle holds and BTC surpasses $110k, we could see a surge to $159k levels.
