Key Points
- Bitcoin’s price remains steady near $110K while exchange whale inflows reach a cycle low of $2.99B.
- The drop in derivatives activity and the Stochastic RSI indicate overbought conditions, yet Bitcoin’s stability suggests strong support.
Bitcoin’s price [BTC] was just under $110K on June 11, testing a supply zone between $109K and $111K.
This area had capped previous rallies, but current on-chain and technical signals suggest a stronger setup.
Whale Inflows and Bitcoin’s Rally
Whale inflows to Binance have dropped to cycle lows. Historically, these inflows surged during peak euphoria, often indicating short-term tops.
This cycle is different, as large holders seem to be sidelined or quietly accumulating, indicating they expect more upside rather than rushing to take profits.
The current behavior reflects stronger conviction, suggesting that Bitcoin’s rally may still have room to evolve.
Bitcoin’s Upside Potential
The NVT Golden Cross dropped to 0.33, well below the 2.2 overbought threshold, suggesting BTC is not yet at a valuation extreme.
Higher NVT values in previous cycles coincided with overheated conditions, but the current reading implies price remains grounded in transaction activity.
This supports the case for further upside without the risk of a local top. Therefore, on-chain valuation metrics reflect a neutral-to-bullish environment, potentially allowing BTC to push through the current supply zone if momentum persists.
Long-term Demand for Bitcoin
Meanwhile, BTC’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio has dropped by 25% to 795K, showing a short-term deviation from its scarcity-driven valuation model.
However, the broader trend still supports long-term bullishness as post-halving supply remains low.
While the dip could reflect temporary circulation or decreased demand, it has not significantly altered market structure.
Therefore, the scarcity narrative remains intact, though short-term price direction may depend more on speculative flows and macro signals than on pure supply metrics.
Derivatives Market Activity
Futures and Options activity has significantly cooled. BTC Futures volume dropped 29.68%, while Options volume fell 37%.
Open Interest slipped 2%, though Options OI rose slightly by 1.85%. This suggests reduced speculative appetite but not a full retreat.
Funding remained positive, with the OI-Weighted Funding Rate printing 0.0075%. This reflects mild long bias without aggressive leverage.
Compared to previous cycles where overheated Funding Rates preceded reversals, current conditions look far more controlled.
Technical Resistance for Bitcoin
Technically, BTC is testing the $109K–$111K supply zone while holding above a rising trendline.
However, the Stochastic RSI reading above 93 indicates overbought conditions. This suggests potential for a minor pullback or sideways action before continuation.
Despite some challenges, the upward trendline and metrics like low exchange inflows suggest a positive setup.
BTC must break through this resistance to confirm the next move, while bulls remain in control.
Bitcoin’s stability near $110,000, despite reduced whale inflows and a dip in derivatives activity, shows strong support.
Although momentum has waned and the Stochastic RSI indicates potential short-term exhaustion, the lack of aggressive selling suggests limited downside risks.
If bulls break through the $111,000 supply zone, Bitcoin could enter a new price discovery phase, backed by both technical indicators and long-term holder confidence.
