Key Points
- Bitcoin [BTC] has been under $60K for a week, with downward pressure mainly from government and Mt. Gox sell-offs.
- The next direction for BTC price could be determined by the June US CPI data, scheduled for 11 July.
Bitcoin [BTC] has remained below $60,000 for a week, experiencing a 7% drop in Q3 at the time of writing.
This downward trend has been largely attributed to sell-offs from the government and Mt. Gox, providing bears with market leverage.
The End of Bear Days
However, according to a market observer, the days of Bitcoin bears could be numbered, as key sell pressure from the German government might soon ease.
Several bullish catalysts for BTC were cited by the pseudonymous analyst, including increasing global liquidity and the possible absorption of the remaining German government BTC holdings by next week.
Data from Arkham Intelligence shows that the German government sent over $60 million worth of BTC to centralized exchanges on Thursday, reducing their BTC balance to 13.1K coins, or approximately $767 million.
FTX Payout and Bitcoin Price
Bitcoin could also benefit from the FTX payout, which is estimated to be around $16 billion and is expected to be paid in cash at the end of Q3 2024.
This could provide additional liquidity for BTC and the market as a whole.
However, another market observer, MartyParty, questioned the impact of Trump’s win, given the recent push for the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to oversee spot BTC markets.
Bitcoin Price Future
Currently, BTC is hovering around the 200-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) but has yet to turn it into support.
The weak market structure has been further confirmed by below-average readings from the RSI (Relative Strength Index) and CMF (Chaikin Money Flow).
However, the direction of the next BTC price could be determined after the release of the June US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, scheduled for July 11.
A slower inflation print could confirm the deflationary trend and prompt the Fed to consider rate cuts, possibly setting BTC to climb the 200-day SMA.
But higher-than-expected inflation could give bears more leverage to drive BTC lower.
Interestingly, the founders of Glassnode reiterated this view and saw the CPI data as likely to determine the next direction for BTC price.
