Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) needs to overcome resistance levels to maintain its bullish trend.
- Increased Open Interest in Bitcoin derivatives suggests potential volatility.
Bitcoin’s current market situation is a mix of potential opportunities and risks. The question remains – is this a setup for a significant market squeeze or just another bull trap?
For Bitcoin (BTC) to remain in a bullish phase, it must overcome the resistance levels. Any sign of weakness could lead to short sellers capitalizing on the situation. However, achieving these high-value price points won’t be easy.
Historical Trends and Bitcoin’s STH Cohort
Historically, the excitement of a breakout often lures investors into taking profits prematurely, setting up a perfect scenario for a downside liquidity sweep. Currently, with Bitcoin approaching its late-January highs of around $106,249, the situation seems eerily similar.
Since Bitcoin broke through the $93k barrier, the STH (Short Term Holders) MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) ratio has been on the rise. These short-term holders, who have held their positions for more than 155 days, have made a profit of +10%. These investors are sitting on unrealized profits as their entry points are significantly lower than Bitcoin’s current market value.
Market Trends and Potential Volatility
In the previous cycle, the STH MVRV peaked when Bitcoin reached $98,154 on November 21. However, Bitcoin continued to rise to the $106k mark over the next month, despite the pressure. But then, things took a turn for the worse. The bid-side support couldn’t sustain as these STHs flooded the market with liquidity, pushing the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) into deep red territory. This resulted in a market reset, with Bitcoin ultimately closing at $76,270 by early April.
Data from Coinglass is showing a warning signal: Open Interest (OI) in Bitcoin derivatives has risen back to $66 billion, similar to the levels seen when Bitcoin was nearing the $104k range in Q4 of last year. With price action testing historical highs, short-term holders making decent gains, and Open Interest increasing, all the elements for volatility are present. The coming days could determine whether Bitcoin’s rally has real momentum or if it’s just another bull trap.
