Key Points
- Citigroup cut Bitcoin and Ethereum 12-month targets, citing weaker demand and ETF flow slowdown.
- Bank reduced assumed crypto ETF inflows to zero, reflecting structural demand reassessment.
Citigroup lowered its 12-month price target for Bitcoin (BTC) to $82,000 from $112,000 and for Ethereum (ETH) to $2,240 from $3,175 in a July 1, 2026 research note.
The revision also reduces the bank’s projected net spot crypto ETF inflows over the next year to zero, down from an earlier $10 billion estimate.
This marks the firm’s second downgrade cycle in 2026 and reflects a reassessment of institutional demand assumptions rather than a routine adjustment tied solely to macroeconomic conditions.
At the time of the update, Bitcoin was trading near $58,650, down 1.2% over 24 hours, with daily volume exceeding $34.6 billion.
Drivers Behind the Forecast Cut
Citigroup attributed the revised outlook to weaker investor appetite for digital assets, negative spot Bitcoin ETF flows, and limited progress on U.S. digital asset legislation.
The bank described ETF flows as a key price driver, noting that year-to-date spot Bitcoin ETF inflows stood at approximately $3.3 billion and had recently turned negative.
By eliminating its prior assumption of $10 billion in net ETF inflows, the bank adjusted the demand inputs within its valuation framework, resulting in lower projected price support.
Legislative developments remain another variable in the bank’s outlook, particularly ongoing delays surrounding proposed U.S. digital asset market structure legislation.
Earlier in 2026, similar concerns about political delays were cited as a factor behind previous target reductions.
Revised Targets and Bear-Case Scenarios
The updated projection continues a downward sequence, with Bitcoin’s target reduced from $143,000 earlier in the year to $112,000, and now to $82,000.
Ethereum’s forecast followed a similar path, moving from $4,304 to $3,175 and then to $2,240.
The bank also adjusted its recessionary bear-case scenarios, lowering Bitcoin’s downside level from $58,000 to $53,000 and Ethereum’s from $1,198 to $1,094.
These downside revisions assume continued ETF outflows alongside softer macroeconomic conditions.
Future forecast changes may depend on developments in U.S. legislative proceedings or a sustained shift in spot ETF flow trends.
