Key Points
- Despite aggressive long exposure above $88,000, Bitcoin’s Net Delta suggests weakening buyer momentum.
- Realized Price continues to rise, but the MVRV Z-Score indicates the market is cooling, not capitulating.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent market activity has highlighted a growing risk for traders holding long positions as the price action has tightened near a critical level.
The $84,000 zone has become a focal point for institutional positioning and derivative buildup. A breach of this zone could potentially trigger a rapid sell-off.
Warning Signs for Traders
Data from Alphractal suggests a rising Open Interest and an increase in inflows into exchanges, indicating a heightened risk of liquidation.
As seen in the chart, Bitcoin’s price rose above $88,000 before stalling. Many traders entered long positions during this move, with the Open Interest profile showing a buildup of leveraged positions near that price.
Buyer Momentum Weakens
As prices slowed above $88K, the Net Delta began to fall, hinting at a loss of control by buyers despite continued long exposure.
If the price reverses sharply, the $84,000 zone could become a battlefield. Traders who entered long positions above $88K could face liquidation if prices fall below this level.
The $84K level has the highest concentration of contracts, making it a prime liquidity zone. This zone functions as both a technical support and a potential liquidation trigger. If prices dip below it, market makers may accelerate the move by exploiting trapped longs, potentially resulting in a wave of forced selling.
Data from CryptoQuant shows a rise in Bitcoin transferred to exchanges in March, suggesting an intent to sell.
Between January and March 2025, the price moved from a high of $105,000 to $86,911. Major inflow spikes occurred on days with increased volatility. For example, on the 3rd of March, 31,152 BTC were transferred to exchanges when Bitcoin was priced at $84,311, reinforcing the significance of the $84K zone.
Meanwhile, outflows declined from 86,230 BTC in February to 10,186 BTC by the 27th of March, suggesting reduced accumulation and growing caution. With long-term holders pulling back, bullish support may be weakening.
Bitcoin HODLers Exercise Caution
Charts from Glassnode show Bitcoin’s Realized Price increased steadily from $33,149 in November 2024 to $43,696 in March 2025.
However, the MVRV Z-Score fell from 3.42 to 1.99 during the same period. This divergence suggests reduced speculative excess, not full capitulation. Historically, scores above 5 mark tops; 2 implies mild overvaluation.
Bitcoin trades near $86,000, holding above the $84,000 support. Exchange data shows cautious accumulation, while derivatives reflect heavy long exposure.
On-chain indicators point to weakening momentum. A break below $84,000 could trigger liquidations. Shorts above $88,000 may benefit. However, a strong defense could maintain the bullish structure of higher lows. Markets now eye this zone for the next major move.
