Key Points
- Bitcoin’s market behavior in 2025 is showing similarities with the post-bear market phase of 2018.
- Despite low retail interest, indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be entering a new uptrend.
Bitcoin’s market activity in 2025 is beginning to draw parallels with the post-bear market phase of 2018. The stabilization of its price action and shifting data have led investors to identify similarities.
The question now being asked is whether Bitcoin could be on the brink of another significant recovery.
Similarities between 2018 and 2025
The chart highlights two key transition points: late 2018 and early 2025. Both followed extended bear markets, characterized by deep red valleys where sentiment and price action were low. In 2018, Bitcoin began to climb steadily once it crossed this bearish threshold, eventually sparking a new bull cycle. The current market structure is strikingly similar.
Currently, Bitcoin’s market cap has once again crossed out of the red zone, with the lower indicator suggesting a resurgence in bullish momentum. While this setup does not always guarantee a rally, history indicates that these transitions often precede multi-month uptrends.
How This Cycle Differs
While the technical parallels with 2018 are clear, this cycle is unfolding in a significantly different macro environment. Bitcoin is now operating in a post-ETF context, with increased institutional involvement and a more mature infrastructure. However, sentiment-driven phases of fear and greed continue to influence price discovery.
Interestingly, this transition has been happening quietly. Retail interest has remained low, potentially providing smart money with an opportunity before broader momentum returns. If the pattern continues, we might be observing the early signs of Bitcoin’s next major rally.
Bitcoin’s Price Outlook
Bitcoin’s recent close above $87,000 marked a 2.5% gain, indicating a possible trend shift. The RSI climbed to 57.93, reflecting increasing bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. This suggests there is room for further upside.
Meanwhile, the OBV appears to be steadily rising, suggesting that buying pressure may be supporting the price action.
With higher lows forming on both price and indicators, Bitcoin could be gaining strength after several weeks of consolidation. If the $88k resistance breaks, a move towards $90k could happen quickly, mirroring early-stage rebounds seen in previous market cycles.
