Key Points
- The crypto fear and greed index has hit ‘extreme greed’ as bullish bets on Bitcoin exceeding $100K intensify.
- Retail market activity suggests a potential price pullback scenario for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been oscillating around the $90K mark, but market interest remains high, reaching an ‘extreme greed’ status according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index (FGI).
Historical Trends and Predictions
Data from Soso Value reveals that this is the fifth ‘extreme greed’ signal (above 80) on the FGI since 2021. Historically, an FGI above 80 has aligned with Bitcoin’s local and cycle tops. For instance, in early 2024, Bitcoin reached a local top above $73K when the ‘extreme greed’ status was triggered.
In 2021, a similar signal was associated with a local top in February, followed by a cycle top in August. The question arises whether this trend will repeat and prompt a price pullback. However, the extremely bullish sentiment in the options market seems to disagree with such a scenario, at least until Bitcoin reaches +$100K.
Options Traders’ Outlook
According to recent data insights from Deribit, large players’ positioning remains bullish as they discard $75K and $85K puts (bearish bets) and increase $95K-$110K calls (bullish bets). In simpler terms, most hedge funds do not anticipate Bitcoin to fall below $80K or $75K. Instead, they are predicting a further rally, with potential targets of $95K-$110K between December and early 2025.
Similar price targets are reflected on Bitcoin’s 2-week chart. The next key upside targets are at $95.8K and $102K. Given the price momentum and the Stochastic RSI nearing an overbought condition, Bitcoin might attempt to reach these targets.
However, the return of the retail market, often seen as a sign of a possible local or cycle top, could indicate a potential price pullback as whales typically use them as exit liquidity.
CryptoQuant founder, Ki Young Ju, warned that a price correction could be likely but might not signify the start of a bear phase. He stated, “If I were a giga whale, I’d wait for more exit liquidity. It’s just starting. Imagine retail in FOMO joining at $100K. We might see some corrections, but it wouldn’t mark the start of a bear market, imo.”
