Key Points
- Bitcoin and Ethereum options worth $2.02 billion and $280 million respectively are set to expire, potentially causing market volatility.
- Bitcoin shows bullish bias while Ethereum faces bearish pressure due to whale inflows and sentiment skewing.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are bracing for a volatile trading session as options worth billions are set to expire. Historically, such high-stakes expiries have triggered sudden price swings, particularly when Open Interest and sentiment indicators diverge significantly.
Traders are aggressively repositioning to protect capital or maximize gains, increasing intraday risk for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. As expiry pressure mounts, the market’s reaction could set the tone for the weekend and possibly the broader short-term trend.
Bitcoin Options and Potential Scenarios
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $84,493.50, down 0.34%. Max Pain hovered near $90,000, suggesting an upward pull as market makers aim to minimize payouts. Moreover, Open Interest climbed to $54.73 billion, marking a 1.81% increase which indicates stronger participation leading into the expiry.
While sentiment remains divided, smart money appears confident. Data reveals slight pessimism from retail traders but a positive sentiment from institutional players. Liquidation data also reflects an imbalance, with more long positions being flushed out compared to shorts, indicating potential downside if momentum stalls.
Ethereum’s Position and Market Sentiment
Ethereum was trading at $1,581.17, slipping 1.54% at press time. Ethereum’s sentiment is noticeably weaker than Bitcoin’s with both crowd sentiment and smart money sentiment reinforcing a dominant bearish outlook. Any bullish reversal may face resistance unless fundamentals shift quickly.
On-chain positioning appears heavy, suggesting traders and whales may avoid making strong moves until expiry dust settles. Over the past week, 15,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges, aligning with smart money’s bullish stance and implying that major holders expect strength following the expiry.
In contrast, Galaxy Digital deposited 62,181 ETH worth $99.46 million to exchanges in just six days, including a $20.09 million inflow to Binance just eight hours ago. Such inflows often precede sell pressure or hedging behavior, especially when paired with bearish sentiment. This activity amplifies downside risk for Ethereum unless strong demand re-emerges quickly.
While Bitcoin shows early signs of resilience, Ethereum may be entering a more volatile phase—one heavily influenced by its expiry dynamics and whale flows.
