Key Points
- Bitcoin’s dominance over the crypto market is now over 63%, indicating struggles for altcoins.
- Altcoin credibility is diminishing, with trading momentum and investor confidence decreasing significantly.
Bitcoin [BTC] appears to be gaining more control over the wider crypto market. With its dominance now surpassing 63%, the latest market structure may be indicating significant difficulties for altcoins.
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson highlighted this shift in a tweet comparing Bitcoin’s price with an Altcoin Season Index. At present, less than 25% of altcoins seem to be outperforming Bitcoin, indicating a Bitcoin Season.
Altcoin Performance
According to Alphractal, only 4 out of 57 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin, which itself saw a -17.6% drop. Among the few that outperformed, PancakeSwap [CAKE] was the only one with positive returns of +10.5%.
Most altcoins returned between -20% and -72%, with JUNE leading losses at -72.4%. Despite its own drop, Bitcoin remains a relative safe haven compared to the altcoins.
Declining Altcoin Credibility
Excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins, the share of altcoins has fallen from 23% to 20%. This decline confirms a lack of investor conviction in non-Bitcoin assets.
Trading momentum for altcoins has also been dwindling. On 05 December, the altcoin market cap peaked at $1.43 trillion, with volume at $542.63 billion. By 03 April, however, these numbers fell to $975.64 billion and $137.31 billion, respectively, indicating a 32% and 296% drop.
These figures suggest a decrease in investor confidence. Spikes in December were not sustained, and by March, the trend was clearly southbound across both price and participation.
Bitcoin’s rise in dominance coincided with clear signals from the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR). Bitcoin peaked at $96,209, alongside a 16.03 SSR. However, within three days, both reversed sharply. By April, BTC fell to $81,800, and the SSR dropped to 14.21.
Despite Bitcoin’s own losses, its market dominance rose, not fell. This suggests that Altcoin seasons are rare, brief, and fragile. Bitcoin’s dominance, now past 63%, indicates a consolidating market where capital flows into perceived safety.
Short-term optimism around altcoins exists. However, without a structural shift in dominance and liquidity, any rallies may remain isolated and brief. For now, it seems that the smart money is staying parked in Bitcoin or waiting on the sidelines.
