Key Points
- Bitcoin [BTC] bounced back to $104.9k after retesting the $100k mark, indicating a profit return for long-term holders (LTHs).
- Due to the lack of a strong upside catalyst, BTC may remain range-bound between $104k and $107k.
Bitcoin [BTC] has made a strong recovery, bouncing back to $104.9k after retesting the $100k mark. This move has brought all long-term holders (LTHs) back into a profitable position.
However, this has led to some LTHs selling off their holdings to realize these gains. Data from Glassnode indicates that the selling by LTHs has resumed, though the pace is moderate.
LTHs Selling Off as Profits Return
The HODLer Net Position Change is currently negative at -14.2K BTC, suggesting net outflows from long-term addresses. This indicates that LTHs are selling more than they are buying. The movement of older coins is a point of concern, particularly since the market lacks a strong upside catalyst.
Market Momentum Stalls
The market lacks motivation to pursue higher Bitcoin (BTC) prices, increasing the risk of a short-term correction. The absence of momentum buyers and external factors to attract new capital contributes to this risk. The 30-Day Volatility has dropped below 1, indicating very low volatility and a compressed market.
Historically, periods of low volatility precede significant price breakouts, either upwards or downwards. The longer the compression period, the more substantial the eventual move.
Potential Early BTC Distribution
The current moderate spending by LTHs may indicate the early stages of distribution, especially with the Long-Term Holder Binary Coin-Days Destroyed Z-Score climbing above 5. If this trend continues and there’s no catalyst for an upward breakout, a market correction could occur.
If BTC fails to maintain support at $100,413, the next logical level would be around $97k. Despite this, LTH spending remains moderate, and short-term holders (STHs) show little inclination to sell, particularly with BTC still below $107k.
Given the low volatility and moderate LTH spending, it seems most likely that BTC will continue to trade sideways between $104k and $107k.
