Key Points
- Bitcoin’s realized cap has reached its 2019 and March 2024 resistance levels, indicating sustained buying activity.
- Binance taker buy volume has surged to $8.3 billion, suggesting high demand and stronger buying pressure.
Bitcoin [BTC] has been trading within a consolidation range of $97k and $92k since reaching $102,747 a week ago.
Despite attempts by market bears to push the price down, bulls have managed to keep the price above $90k for the past 39 days.
Bitcoin’s Realized Cap Reaches Previous Resistance Levels
Alphractal’s analysis reveals that Bitcoin’s realized capitalization has hit the same resistance levels as those seen in 2019 and March 2024.
This suggests a surge in buying activity as demand from investors increases.
In March 2024, Bitcoin’s realized cap saw a significant rise as BTC’s price reached the first all-time high (ATH) of the year, closing the month at $71k.
Similarly, in 2019, as the market recovered from the bear market of 2018, BTC surged from $3k to $13k between February and April.
Correlation Between Realized Cap and Price Trajectory
The previous two cycles show a direct correlation between a rise in realized cap and BTC’s price trajectory.
An increase in the realized cap indicates a rise in buying pressure, even as the price climbs.
This buying pressure is evident in the recent surge in Bitcoin’s Binance taker buy volume, which has reached $8.3 billion.
High taker volume typically signifies high demand, leading to a price increase.
Increasing buyer interest suggests high demand, indicating that Bitcoin’s realized cap may surpass its previous resistance levels.
If Bitcoin’s realized cap breaks through the resistance levels of 2019 and 2024, BTC’s price is likely to increase further.
What Do the Charts Indicate?
Although the analysis provides a positive outlook, it’s crucial to consider other market indicators.
AMBCrypto’s analysis shows strong market demand for Bitcoin.
This demand is evident in the sustained decrease in spot netflows over the past month, dropping from $597 million to $-334.1 million.
This suggests that demand may be exceeding supply as investors continue to accumulate.
The positive Chaikin money flow (CMF) since November also indicates higher buying pressure, signaling strong demand as more investors enter the market.
In conclusion, despite Bitcoin’s realized cap reaching its previous resistance level, demand for BTC remains high.
If this demand persists and buying pressure continues to push the price up, BTC could attempt $98,900 in the short term.
However, if the yearly growth has already peaked, Bitcoin could start to decline to $92,200.
