Key Points
Market experts and top analysts are expressing doubt about the approval of Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs).
This comes as approval odds have significantly dropped over time.
Ethereum ETFs Approval Odds Drop
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF expert Eric Balchunas reported a significant drop in Ethereum spot ETF approval odds.
He shared this update with the cryptocurrency community on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter).
According to Balchunas, there is now only a “35% chance of getting the ETH ETFs approved” by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
This is to be done by the anticipated May deadline predicted by Standard Chartered.
Balchunas initially estimated a 70% possibility of approval by May, marking a significant departure from his January forecasts.
The Bloomberg analyst noted several reasons why the Commission should approve the spot ETFs.
However, he says that the sources or indicators that gave them a bullish 2.5-month outlook for Bitcoin Spot ETFs are not present at the moment.
This highlights the uncertainty surrounding the products in the broader crypto landscape.
Still, Balchunas urged the community not to lose hope completely.
He suggested that Ethereum ETFs might be approved since a 35% odd is not 0%, indicating a possibility of long-term approval.
Balchunas responded to a post by Fox Journalist Eleanor Terret, who shared her insights on the subject.
Terret drew attention to Jake Chervinsky’s opinions, stating that it aligns with what she “has been hearing” regarding the approvals.
However, this does not guarantee that the products will be accepted within the year.
Terret highlighted the lack of “significant interaction from SEC officials” regarding applications.
She also noted that “the May deadline is rapidly approaching.” Terret expressed some optimism about the approval, predicting that “the agency might take a nosedive on their engagement in April or May.”
Ethereum and Bitcoin ETF Cycles Differ
Another Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst, James Seyffart, also shared his thoughts on the matter.
Seyffart noted that the “Ethereum ETF cycle presently seems to be the reverse of the Bitcoin ETF approval probabilities.”
His optimism decreases as they observe and hear more, and as they do not observe and hear more.
Seyffart noted that the deadline for approval is less than “73 days away,” and it seems like no progress has been made.
The World’s largest prediction market, Polymarket, also confirmed the decline in acceptance odds.
Data from the platform shows that Ethereum ETF odds are currently at 36%.
