Key Points
- Ethereum’s long-term holders (LTH) have shown more bullish conviction than Bitcoin’s LTH.
- ETH/BTC ratio indicates a potential rebound and likely market shift in favor of Ethereum.
Ethereum’s [ETH] long-term holders (LTH) have exhibited a stronger bullish sentiment compared to those of Bitcoin [BTC].
According to analytics firm IntoTheBlock, the shift in market dynamics started in early 2024, growing stronger into 2025. During this period, the ETH LTH group increased their holdings and dominance to almost 75%.
Contrasting Behaviors of ETH and BTC Holders
In contrast, the BTC LTH group has been consistently selling off their holdings, pulling their dominance below 60%. The firm noted that currently, 74.7% of Ethereum addresses are long-term holders, significantly surpassing Bitcoin.
This trend is anticipated to persist until Ethereum nears its all-time high, prompting holders to begin taking profits.
The underperformance of ETH compared to BTC since early 2024 might explain this trend. While BTC crossed its previous cycle high and reached over $108K, making almost every holder profitable, ETH has yet to achieve such a milestone.
Institutional Demand for ETH and BTC
Institutional demand for ETH and BTC showed a slight imbalance as the new year began. Data from Soso Value reveals that ETH ETFs are set to conclude the second week of outflows, contrasting with the demand seen in November when the products recorded five consecutive weeks of inflows.
On the other hand, BTC experienced net inflows over the past two weeks. If this trend in institutional demand continues, BTC could potentially outperform ETH in terms of price.
However, the ETH/BTC ratio, another significant indicator, suggests a possible pivot for ETH. This ratio, which tracks ETH’s relative price performance against BTC, fell to a 4-year low of 0.30, highlighting ETH’s underperformance during that period.
Despite this, it formed a double bottom pattern, suggesting a potential rebound and likely market shift favoring ETH.
The recent market downturn brought ETH down to its December lows above $3K. ETH might attempt a rebound from the $3K-$3.3K support zone, targeting $3.6K. This is a sentiment shared by several ETH traders on X (formerly Twitter).
ETH’s potential recovery could be further bolstered if it reclaims the 50-day EMA.
