Key Points
- Short-term traders are likely to exit their positions in case of a price bounce due to recent losses.
- The Ethereum [ETH] flow from exchanges has strayed deep into negative territory in June, leading to price drops.
Despite the anticipation of a price bounce, many short-term traders have experienced losses and are prepared to exit their positions.
The $2.8k level may be revisited as a support level, but the ability of the bulls to maintain this is uncertain.
Ethereum Flow and Price Trends
In a surprising turn, the flow of Ethereum (ETH) from exchanges plunged into negative territory in June. This did not result in the expected appreciation but instead led to a continuation of price drops.
The market was dominated by a bearish sentiment, as evidenced by the price drop below $3k. Despite the selling pressure behind ETH being relentless, this psychological level is expected to be fiercely contested.
Whale Accumulation and Market Impact
Throughout June, the 7-day simple moving average of the exchange netflow remained significantly negative until the 28th. Over the past ten days, it has shifted into positive territory, coinciding with a sharp price drop in July.
The negative netflow indicated Ethereum tokens moving away from exchanges, suggesting accumulation. However, prices continued to decline.
Investors are hopeful that this could be the final downturn before a bullish trend emerges.
The supply distribution analysis revealed an increase in 10k-1M ETH holders since mid-May. Wallets holding 1k-10k ETH increased towards the end of June but have since dropped over the past week. This suggests that large whales with 10k+ ETH have accumulated, while most other wallets have decreased their holdings.
Price Relief Predictions
According to the in/out of the money data, the $2850-$3000 zone was a strong support zone due to the number of holders. In the past three days, the price decline to $2.8k saw a bounce back to $3k, although it remains uncertain whether buyers can withstand the sellers’ onslaught.
At the current market price, 60.25% of the addresses were out of the money, suggesting that price bounces would likely be sold as holders look to break even, adding to the downward pressure.
The MobChart data highlighted large limit orders on the order books for Ethereum. The $3100 and $3170 levels have $3.7 million worth of limit orders. Above them, the $3220-$3250 region and $3500 have just over $5 million, marking these as strong short-term resistances.
The $2800 level has just under $10 million worth of buy orders and might be tested once again. Overall, the metrics show that in the short term, bears were in control.
The exchange outflow in June did little to halt the price decline, and the best bulls can hope for now is a period of consolidation around the psychological $3k support.
