Key Points
- Ethereum’s historically bullish trend in February might be at risk due to emerging market indicators.
- Ethereum’s MVRV ratio has dropped below its 160-day moving average, signaling potential price corrections.
Ethereum [ETH] has typically experienced price increases during February, due to institutional interest and ecosystem development. However, recent on-chain data suggests potential risks.
Ethereum’s February Performance
In the past, Ethereum has shown strong returns in February, with significant gains such as 46.46% in 2024 and 48.09% in 2017. This trend is often attributed to increased market activity after slower starts in January. Entering February 2025 with a modest 4.26% decline, there is optimism that the strong February trend might continue.
On-Chain Data Indicating Risk
However, Ethereum’s MVRV ratio has fallen below its 160-day moving average, a signal that has previously indicated price corrections. Analyst Ali Martinez noted that a similar situation in June 2024 was followed by a 40% price correction. If this trend continues, Ethereum might face increased selling pressure and revisit lower support zones.
Ethereum’s exchange net position change has been showing a shift in market sentiment. In late 2024, net inflows to exchanges indicated increased selling pressure. However, from late December through January 2025, net outflows indicated accumulation as traders moved ETH to private wallets. Recently, slight inflows have returned, suggesting caution among investors.
Potential Scenarios
Ethereum’s price chart shows slight upward momentum, with the altcoin trading at $3,268. The RSI is neutral, which could lean bullish if buying pressure increases. Also, OBV trends indicate consistent accumulation, supporting a potential price rally.
On the other hand, a bearish scenario will emerge if selling pressure increases. A drop below the $3,200 support level could lead to further declines, testing the $3,000-mark. The lack of RSI divergence suggests a continuation of the current consolidation phase.
Ethereum’s price movement is currently delicately balanced, awaiting decisive cues from market sentiment and broader macroeconomic factors.
