Key Points
- Bitcoin’s (BTC) price volatility in August and historical trends suggest potential declines in September.
- Key metrics indicate bearish dominance, but potential U.S. interest rate cuts and other bullish catalysts could stir volatility.
Bitcoin began August trading at approximately $63k, but a week into the month, the price dipped to roughly $49,000. Despite a rebound to $65,000 later in the month, it has since decreased to $59,190 at the time of writing.
Historical Trends and Future Predictions
Bitcoin’s price has fallen nearly 8% in the past month, and traders are preparing for potential further declines in September, based on past trends. In September 2023, the price fluctuated between $24,000-$27,000, with a sharp 17% drop in September 2021.
Key metrics suggest a bearish dominance. Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant increase in exchange inflows since late August, after Bitcoin’s price rebounded above $64k. This trend suggests that many traders are selling to reduce risks of further dips.
Market Indicators and Potential Catalysts
Market indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) show declining buyer interest. The RSI at 43 indicates sellers are in control, and the CMF has been in the negative region since 26 August, signaling bearish dominance.
While positive macro factors typically lead to a bounce in Bitcoin’s price, recent news has had minimal impact. According to QCP, Bitcoin will likely continue to trade within the $58k-$65k range in the short term. Inflows to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also weakened.
However, several bullish factors could lead to a rally in September. Speculation around potential U.S. interest rate cuts, the release of former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao from prison, and a potential mention of crypto in a debate between former U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris could stir volatility. Bitcoin’s funding rates have also turned positive, indicating a surge in long positions.
