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Exploring Bitcoin’s Downtrend: Possible Outcomes for BTC’s Future

Exploring the Impact of Rising Unrealized Losses and Accumulation by Long-Term Holders on Bitcoin's Future Trajectory

Max Porter by Max PorterVerified Author
Mar 26, 2025
2 min. read
Exploring Bitcoin's Downtrend: Possible Outcomes for BTC's Future

Key Points

  • Bitcoin [BTC] is in a consolidation phase, with moderate losses but no widespread selling.
  • Despite a drop in price, data shows ongoing accumulation and dormancy among holders.

Bitcoin’s Consolidation Phase

Bitcoin [BTC] has entered a consolidation phase, showing signs of cooling without triggering widespread selling. The on-chain data reveals a market marked by moderate losses, fading high-profit holdings, and growing mid-range positioning.

According to Glassnode, the share of Bitcoin held at moderate unrealized losses has grown significantly in 2025. Holdings in the -23.6% to -10% loss range rose 7.75% this year, pointing to more underwater holders.

Pressure on Short-Term Holders

There’s mounting pressure on short-term holders, who acquired Bitcoin within the past 155 days. Over 2.8 million BTC from this group sits underwater, posing significant unrealized losses. However, most investors are holding rather than selling at a loss.

The average acquisition price for short-term holders stands near $92,500. Bitcoin remains just below this level, making it a critical resistance threshold.

CryptoVizArt, a senior analyst at Glassnode, identified the $90K–$93K range as a supply zone. This area forms a supply zone, since investors who bought here may sell if prices reach $90K–$93K.

Continued Accumulation Despite Price Drop

Despite the price drop, Bitcoin’s Mean Dollar Invested Age climbed from 418 to 432 days between the 4th of February and the 26th of March. This indicates old coins are dormant, suggesting accumulation over distribution.

The MVRV Long/Short Difference, which tracks holder profitability, dropped from 22.12% on the 3rd of February to 6.59% on the 26th of March. This 70% decline shows long-term holders losing their profitability edge, though sentiment remains steady.

Whale Activity and Market Stability

CryptoQuant data reveals a calm market, supported by the Exchange Whale Ratio staying above 0.50 in March. Peaks on the 14th of March and the 20th of March aligned with stabilization near $84,000 and a recovery to $88,200. This pattern suggests whale activity during low volatility, without triggering major sell-offs.

Metrics across platforms show steady accumulation, lower short-term profitability, and dormant long-term holdings. Resistance holds near $90K-$93K; support sits at $87K-$89K. Bitcoin is in a cooling phase, not a breakdown.

Tags: Bitcoin (BTC)

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