Key Points
- Bitcoin’s bull run could continue in Q3 or Q4, with the price potentially hitting $101,500 by the end of 2024.
- The decline in Bitcoin reserves indicates that holders are accumulating more of the coin, suggesting a bull market.
Bitcoin’s value increase may take longer than initially anticipated, based on certain key on-chain metrics.
The number of Bitcoins seems to be decreasing, potentially indicating that Bitcoin holders are more interested in acquiring more coins rather than selling.
Fall in Reserves Indicate Bull Market
The drop in reserves shows that Bitcoin is in a bull market. However, this metric also suggests that Bitcoin could be 50% away from its potential market peak in this cycle.
Bitcoin’s value was $67,937 at the time of writing, a significant drop from its all-time high in March. The combination of falling reserves and price suggests that Bitcoin may be seeking liquidity.
In trading, liquidity hunting occurs when market participants look for low liquidity as prices move within a narrow range. The market’s assessment indicates that Bitcoin has been fluctuating between $64,000 and $68,000.
This price inefficiency suggests that Bitcoin might not make a significant upward move until the end of Q2. Therefore, the bull run might pause and resume in Q3, continuing until the end of Q4.
Bitcoin’s Price Could Double
The crypto fear and greed index aligns with this viewpoint. This index indicates whether the cryptocurrency is fairly priced, overpriced, or undervalued based on market sentiment.
The metric had a reading of 60 at the time of writing, indicating that market greed was not extreme. Thus, Bitcoin appears to be fairly priced. However, this also suggests that a significant price increase could be possible in the mid to long term.
The Cycle Change Detector, a metric that indicates if Bitcoin has transitioned into a bull or bear phase, supports this bullish price prediction. This metric also uses the correlation between the price and supply in profit. At the time of writing, Bitcoin had moved past the bottom.
However, there was no blue light (top detector) in sight yet. Based on the signals addressed above, Bitcoin’s price might reach $101,500 between Q3 and Q4 2024.
