Key Points
- Bitcoin’s MVRV support at $102K is critical, a breach could lead to a drop towards $82K.
- The soaring NVT ratio and falling stock-to-flow suggest weakening fundamentals behind BTC’s rally.
Bitcoin [BTC] is currently holding on to the MVRV +1.0σ band at $102,044, a significant support zone. The breach of this level could trigger a sharp drop towards the MVRV mean at $82,570. This level has acted as a bounce point during past retracements, marking it as an important line for the bulls.
However, several on-chain and technical signals are turning bearish, suggesting a loss of momentum. The market is now at a pivotal test that may determine whether the current cycle resets or continues.
Is the Market Overheated?
The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio has surged by 83.82%, reaching 56.81. This increase suggests that BTC’s market cap is growing faster than its transaction volume, potentially signaling overvaluation.
Historically, similar NVT spikes have coincided with local market tops or short-term corrections. As the price stays above $104K, on-chain activity fails to match the rise, suggesting weakening fundamental support. This rapid increase in NVT adds to downside pressure and implies that Bitcoin may be priced beyond its current utility.
Is BTC’s Scarcity Narrative Losing Strength?
The Stock-to-Flow ratio has declined by 12.5%, currently reading 795.16K. This decrease challenges BTC’s long-standing scarcity narrative that has often supported bullish long-term valuations.
A falling stock-to-flow value suggests that BTC’s perceived scarcity may no longer be enough to sustain high prices. If investors start questioning this core thesis, bullish conviction could erode quickly. Without renewed inflows or fresh catalysts tied to supply shocks, Bitcoin could struggle to maintain current levels as demand weakens and the scarcity story loses weight.
Short liquidations surged to $5.9 million, led by Bybit and Binance, signaling a wave of forced exits. However, long positions are gradually building, totaling $1.18 million during the same period. This pattern reveals a market split, with short-sellers getting squeezed while dip buyers enter early. However, premature long entries may backfire if the price fails to reclaim higher support zones.
At the time of writing, BTC remained above a crucial ascending trendline and the 0.786 Fibonacci level near $101,437, both acting as confluence support. However, the Stochastic RSI is weakening, printing 35.36 and 42.56, and entering oversold territory. While these levels typically suggest a bounce is near, bears remain in control of short-term momentum.
If buyers fail to reclaim strength and push the price higher, Bitcoin could drop toward deeper retracement levels like $84K or $76K. The coming sessions are critical, with $101K as the last line of defense.
Bitcoin is at a critical juncture as both on-chain metrics and technical indicators reflect growing bearish pressure. The $101K support remains the final stronghold for bulls. A successful defense could spark a rebound, while failure to hold may send prices tumbling toward the MVRV mean at $82,570.
With NVT rising and stock-to-flow weakening, the next move will determine whether BTC stabilizes or faces a sharper correction in the coming days.
