Key Points
- Short-term Bitcoin holders are retreating, indicating a reduced speculative appetite and weak near-term conviction.
- Technical models suggest a possible drop below $80K for Bitcoin, which could lead to a slide toward the $68K zone.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] price was just above $83K on the 4th of April. The entire crypto market seems to be on edge, with potential signs of a drop below $80K.
If this drop occurs, technical models suggest that a slide toward the $68K zone could follow.
A Short-Lived Bitcoin Rally
Bitcoin surged to $88,580 after President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs. However, this rally was not sustainable.
The prices fell sharply as traders considered the risks tied to global trade uncertainty. The market reacted quickly, with the S&P 500 experiencing its biggest daily loss since the pandemic lockdowns.
Bitcoin was not spared from this panic, as its price fell to $82,220 that same day and has struggled to rise since.
Is $80K the New Threshold?
Recent data shows buyers defending the $80K zone. However, technical signals like the death cross are indicating caution.
There’s a significant drop in coins held for less than three months. These short-term holders are usually tied to bullish phases, but their accumulation is currently fading.
In the past, increases in short-term holder supply led to Bitcoin’s biggest bull runs. However, that figure has now dropped below 15%. This decline suggests reduced speculative interest and reflects a larger market cool-down.
Moreover, Open Interest has dropped 37.5%, falling from over $80B to below $50B since late 2024, mirroring Bitcoin’s slide from $106K to $84K.
If Bitcoin loses $80K with volume, a cascade toward $68K is likely, according to analyst Joao Wedson.
The MVRV Ratio Warning
Another red flag is the MVRV Ratio. It has fallen from 2.74 in November to below 2.0 in April, signaling fading speculation and a shift toward long-term holding.
For example, on the 3rd of February alone, over 60,000 BTC exited exchanges. This is one of the largest single-day outflows recorded in months.
This suggests that sellers are not necessarily rushing to exit, but new buyers aren’t stepping in either.
Bitcoin’s position above $80K is fragile. If that level breaks, a move to $68K could follow as bearish signals align.
With leverage fading and macro risks rising post-tariff, the next few days may decide whether this is a short-term dip or the start of deeper consolidation.
