Key Points
- Bitcoin short-term holders are selling at a high profit, indicating a potential market correction.
- Despite this, predictions suggest Bitcoin could reach a peak of $160,000 if it rebounds.
Short-term holders of Bitcoin have been selling their coins at a significant profit, which may hint at a forthcoming market correction.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for Bitcoin short-term holders is high, often aligning with price peaks. This could suggest potential market adjustments if demand decreases while profit-taking remains high.
Market Predictions and Indicators
If the SOPR drops below 1, indicating selling at a loss, it could reflect potential price corrections or market declines. However, if SOPR values continue to decrease, it could signal reduced selling pressure, potentially stabilizing Bitcoin around $90,000.
The short-term holders’ NAV Premium has dropped to 11.8% from over 30%, further supporting the anticipated price correction. When the NAV Premium approaches zero, selling activity typically slows, indicating that holders are retaining their assets in anticipation of improved market conditions.
The MACD has also shown bearish crossovers at high levels, historically associated with price corrections. The bearish signals, along with Bitcoin’s price peaking near historical resistance levels, suggest another significant correction could be on the horizon.
Potential Bitcoin Rebound
Despite these indicators, Bitcoin’s Open Interest (OI) appears to be retracing to a supportive trendline, suggesting potential price stabilization or rebound. If the current pattern repeats, Bitcoin’s price could reach the $160,000 mark in the first quarter of 2025.
The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio and the short-term holders’ Realized Price, currently at $86,000, indicate key levels where market sentiment could shift, potentially dampening further corrections and reinforcing the trajectory towards $160,000.
This analysis, based on historical patterns and current on-chain metrics, provides a cautiously optimistic outlook for Bitcoin’s near-term movement.
