Key Points
- Bitcoin’s rising accumulation trend score suggests a possible rebound, but other metrics hint at potential further price drops.
- Despite some bottom signals, it remains uncertain if Bitcoin has reached its lowest point yet.
Bitcoin’s Uncertain Market Trajectory
Bitcoin [BTC] has been rejected twice from the short-term range highs at $58.8k within two days. The loss of the psychological $60k support last week has resulted in a fearful market sentiment. However, there may be a glimmer of hope for a rebound. The increasing accumulation trend score at press time indicates a willingness from buyers, but other metrics suggest a potential for more loss.
Crypto analyst Axel Adler highlighted the average losses of short-term holders (STHs) in a recent post. While these losses are similar to those of June 2023, they are significantly less severe than the losses in 2021 and 2022. This could signal a potential local bottom. However, it also implies that traders and investors should brace for a possible sharper price drop.
Clues to Bitcoin’s Future
CryptoQuant observed that the trader realized profit/loss margin is at -17%. This is similar to the market bottoms over the past two years, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin is more likely to rebound than to fall further. According to CryptoQuant’s Founder and CEO Ki Young Ju, whales tend to over-leverage at their cyclical bottoms, leading to an over-leveraged market and a subsequent price drop. Currently, whales are not over-leveraged, which could set the stage for a deeper correction below the $50k mark.
In the period from the last week of May to July 3, the estimated leverage ratio on exchanges increased rapidly. During this time, Bitcoin’s price was around $67k-$69k. As the price fell below $66k, the leverage ratio rose again, suggesting that traders were trying to time the bottom. However, their hopes were dashed by BTC’s continued descent, and the leverage ratio also fell, which could be a healthy sign for the market.
Despite several signals indicating a potential bottom, it is still uncertain whether Bitcoin has reached its lowest point. Seller pressure might begin to decrease, but investors should still prepare for the possibility of the price falling below $50k.
