Key Points
- Bitcoin miners sold over 110,000 BTC in a week, raising concerns about stalling the price rally.
- Indicators suggest there is little room for growth before market euphoria hits, potentially triggering more sell-offs.
Bitcoin miners have been increasing their selling pressure, particularly as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeded $90K.
From November 10th to 17th, miners sold more than 110,000 BTC, which is roughly equivalent to $10 billion.
Miner Sell-Offs and Market Impact
The most significant daily sell-off, involving 25,367 BTC (approximately $2.2 billion), occurred on November 12th.
Since October, the trend of miner sell-offs has been on the rise, coinciding with the broader market recovery.
This increased selling pressure has led to speculation about whether it could prevent BTC from reaching the significant $100K mark.
Historically, heightened miner sell-offs and revenue have indicated local and cycle peaks.
If the current trend leans towards a cycle peak, it could prompt other holders to sell their BTC.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Cycle Top
From the perspective of miners, a surge in miner fees above 30% of total revenue has typically correlated with previous BTC cycle tops.
High readings indicate increased market euphoria, which pushes transaction fees to record highs against rewards, signaling an overheated market.
In November, miner fees were around 10% of total revenue, suggesting the market was not yet overheated.
Another indicator, the Pi Cycle Top, suggested limited room for a BTC rally before the market overheats.
In previous trends, when BTC moved above the moving average, it signaled a cycle top and a cue for holders to sell.
The current reading suggests a BTC surge past $120K could be a sell signal.
Large players in the options market, such as QCP Capital, expect the $100K-$120K targets.
If BTC exceeds $120K, it could trigger the Pi Cycle Top and lead to increased profit booking among all BTC holders. This would represent a 30% move from the current $90K level.
