Key Points
- Pro-Bitcoin candidate Donald Trump is predicted to have a higher chance of winning the US presidential elections according to prediction sites.
- BTC options traders remain bullish due to these predictions, with the asset nearing its all-time high.
Prediction sites and top models have indicated that Donald Trump, a pro-Bitcoin (BTC) candidate, has a greater likelihood of emerging victorious in the forthcoming US presidential elections.
This information comes from a recent analysis by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, who cited prediction sites such as Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and others that were suggesting a +60% chance of a Trump victory.
Potential Impact on BTC
Despite criticism for alleged manipulation, platforms like Polymarket and other reliable models have leaned towards Trump.
Bianco pointed out that top election models like Silver Bulletin and two other popular models also predicted a +50% chance of a Trump win.
This expectation has been seen as bullish by BTC market speculators.
In the past few weeks, BTC has surged as Trump’s odds increased and crossed the 60% mark on Polymarket, pushing BTC to nearly $70K. Bianco referred to this correlation as an ‘election play.’
Market Positioning
The most evident impact of this bullish expectation on Trump’s win was seen in the BTC options market. Last week, options traders were pricing a 20% chance of BTC hitting $80K by the end of November.
According to Deribit data, there was nearly twice as much Open Interest in call options (betting price rally) than in put options (price decline) for contracts expiring by 8th November.
The put/call ratio (PCR), a measure of options market sentiment, stood at 0.55. A value below 1 indicates a dominance of call options, signifying bullish sentiment.
This 0.55 PCR reading suggested an extremely bullish sentiment in the options market, likely due to the assumption that Trump was likely to win.
However, with Kamala Harris also adopting an increasingly pro-crypto stance, BTC options traders were confident that the asset could reach a new all-time high (ATH) regardless of the election outcome.
At press time, BTC was valued at $67K, about 9% away from its ATH of $73.7K.
