Key Points
- Bitcoin’s current market structure aligns with previous bull cycles, suggesting potential for a bullish outlook.
- Despite volatility, historical patterns remain intact, hinting that HODLing may still be the best long-term strategy.
Bitcoin’s [BTC](https://coineagle.com/price/bitcoin/) current price action is reminiscent of its March 2017 cycle. At that time, BTC was still nine months away from reaching its peak. If the past is any indication, BTC could enter its next “extreme greed” phase by Q4 2025. This signals the final stretch of its bull run.
Bitcoin’s RSI and the 2017 Cycle
A recent post from X (formerly Twitter) pointed out that Bitcoin’s RSI Bollinger Band % has returned to critically low levels. This suggests that the asset is deeply oversold within its volatility range, often indicating a potential rebound. This pattern is similar to occurrences in 2013, 2016, and 2020, which all preceded new all-time highs for Bitcoin.
However, with BTC’s price at $83,078, the future remains uncertain. Analysts have warned that a local bottom has not yet formed. Institutional outflows are accelerating and the long-term holder supply is dropping to pre-election lows. These are signs of short-term weakness.
Identifying the Next Market Top
While a definitive bottom hasn’t been established, there are also no strong indicators of a market top. Fear of missing out (FOMO) is steadily increasing, with exchange reserves dropping to a one-year low. This suggests long-term accumulation rather than profit-taking.
Despite Bitcoin’s 22% pullback from its $109K peak, the BTC supply on exchanges continues to decrease. This indicates that investors are holding, not selling. For Bitcoin to replicate its 2017 bull cycle, this accumulation trend must continue. If it does, historical data suggests the market’s true cycle top could still be nine months away.
Even amid macro uncertainty and stock market liquidations, BTC has maintained its $77K–$80K range. This shows unwavering investor confidence. In the short term, breaking past $90K is the main challenge. However, in the long run, sustained accumulation and growing confidence could push Bitcoin into the six-digit territory.
